"Winners and Losers in the New Commodity Price Regime," a Monitor-GBN white paper, provides a unique point of view on the impact that deep structural shifts in commodities markets will have on the competitive landscape.

Key points include:

1. Higher commodity prices across a range of resource areas—food, hydrocarbons and fuel, minerals, etc.—are likely to be a permanent fixture in the strategic landscape over the next five plus years, rather than temporary interludes of volatility or upward swings.
2. High prices are just one element of the story; we will also see significant shifts in value chain power, degree of national government influences, sources of wealth and competition, degrees of access to raw materials, and changes in the labor market.
3. Under these conditions, C-level executives should expect to face critical decisions about vertical integration and supply chain management, the physical location of their businesses—at the country level versus regional level—and their investment in political risk management and contingency planning.

As commodity prices are driven upwards in the next five years, and are accompanied by the significant structural market changes described, those leaders that start preparing now for the threats and the opportunities implied by these shifts are most likely to position their company—or country—to thrive.

Peter Schwartz is the co-founder and chairman of Global Business Network, a Monitor Group company, and a Monitor partner. A renowned scenarist and business strategist, he is the author of five books, including The Art of The Long View and Inevitable Surprises.

Michael Costigan, Noah Raford, and associate partner Matt Ranen are practitioners at GBN. Dr. Steven Weber is a GBN Network member and professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley. Dr. Nils Gilman is a senior practitioner with Monitor 360. Tommy Stadlen and Laura Modiano are Monitor consultants.