The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz’s seminal book on scenario planning, is required reading at business schools across the country and helped spark the now-widespread corporate use of scenario-planning methodology.

Now, two decades later, the world has changed significantly. In Learnings from the Long View, Schwartz—a partner at Monitor and the chairman and co-founder of Monitor’s Global Business Network (GBN) —revisits some of the scenarios from the original book to see what he got right and what missed the mark. He also shares what he’s learned in the past 20 years of scenario planning, and outlines some scenarios for the year 2025—Schwartz describes the book as “a memoir, a mea culpa, and a map of the future.”

Among the lessons learned from his experiences, Schwartz writes:

• “In a complex, uncertain situation, even a scenario planner is vulnerable to an instantaneous judgment and forecast. It is always worth asking yourself: ‘how could I be wrong?’”
• “Diversity really does matter. Inviting people into the conversation who make you uncomfortable is a very good idea.”
• “When creating scenarios, always ask the questions: Could your data be wrong? Could potential problems be bigger than anyone thinks? How can I challenge my deepest assumptions?”

Peter Schwartz is co-founder and chairman of Monitor’s Global Business Network (GBN), and a partner at Monitor. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, Peter specializes in scenario planning—working with corporations, governments, and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. He has authored five books, including the renowned The Art of the Long View, with the most recent being Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence. Peter is also a venture partner of San Francisco-based Alta Partners, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, the Long Now Foundation, and the World Affairs Council.